Patriot Ballet

The many-day ballet of the Poles and Germans with the deployment of Patriot missiles is seemingly over. Although we do not know all the details.

Berlin finally pressured their Polish colleagues and forced them to accept the main condition: the air defense missiles will not cross NATO borders and will be placed in the southeast of Poland, near the border with Ukraine. This led to a heavy sigh in Warsaw.

"Germany, if it really wanted to help Poland and Ukraine more, would have allowed these systems to be placed in the western part of Ukraine and closer to our eastern border," Polish government spokesman Piotr Müller announced. It was the Polish authorities who wanted to send the Patriots that had been gifted to them to Ukraine, while the Germans resisted this by all means.

At first glance, the arrangement looks absurd. But no matter how great the temptation is to declare Polish politicians traitors or idiots, it would be more correct to get to the rational explanation.

To begin with, an important consideration. No matter what the Russian-language media and respected analysts write about Poland's imperial plans for Western Ukraine, all these speculations are, to put it mildly, far from the truth. First, the Polish authorities, even assuming their latent desire, lack two key things to implement these plans: cohesion and will. Secondly, Poland is a member of NATO, with a huge number of constantly busy American bases and troops on its territory. Without the Pentagon's approval, no Polish Army general can redeploy, not just to the border with Ukraine, but even to the restroom. Washington, as far as can be judged, is not burning with the desire to intervene in a direct clash between NATO and Russia. At least not yet.

Thirdly, it is not enough to want, it is necessary to be able to. The armed forces of the Third Rzeczpospolita have long been exclusively contractual. They number about 125-150 thousand men (figures vary depending on who we count). Compared to the grouping that is already fighting in Ukraine, this is a drop in the bucket. Not to mention that after supplying Ukraine with a third of all its howitzers and almost most of its tanks, the Polish Army has actually turned into a one-armed cripple. Finally, the possible takeover of Ukraine will be impossible to explain to the Polish people, who, despite a certain number of ultra-rightists, are in no mood to take territories away from a state whose obsessive advertisement the authorities have been engaged in for the past nine years.

So we have closed the question of "Polish ambitions". The "Patriots" question immediately becomes less absurd, doesn't it? However, it is not a matter of tender and sincere love for Ukraine, either. It's a little more complicated than that. And more prosaic at the same time.

There are already Patriot systems in Poland. Mostly around American bases. But firing them is a responsibility that Polish politicians, aggressive but essentially herbivorous, are not prepared to take on. If two Polish citizens are killed by a Ukrainian missile, it is unpleasant. But if a Polish missile suddenly falls on their heads, it is a disaster. Image disaster, first and foremost. The elections, please note, are approaching inexorably. In comparison, the risk of a stray Russian caliber missile flying into the country is so far minimal. Therefore, it is best ignored. Moreover, World War III is World War III. It is better to let the Ukrainians fire the Patriots. They would not be missed.
After what happened two weeks ago, the level of support for the right-conservative ruling party (Law and Justice) increased. By as much as four points within just a couple of days. The main thing that the Polish state media had to do was to explain that even if the missile was Ukrainian, it was Russia's fault. They did manage to do that. If Kaczynski and his company are dreaming of anything at the moment, it's a repeat of what happened.
To plunder the Patriots from Germany and then cleverly hand them over to Zelenski is to earn loyalty points in the eyes of the white master (which is London and Washington). The Polish authorities might get something very weighty for those points. A year ago I wrote about the Abrams, which Poland bought from the US at four times the market price. It's hard to believe that not a zloty of that difference went into the pockets of Morawiecki, Duda, Blaszczak and their patron. Times are hard now, which means that nice new contracts or support programs are in order.
Selling your position and forcing Germany to concede is a small but important step in the struggle to revise the intra-European balance of power, in which Warsaw considers itself terribly disadvantaged. Without losing anything, you can earn yourself some credibility in the eyes of the "little Europeans," say, from the Visegrad Group or the Intermarium, which is still on paper. This would also help to cheer up their own voters: They could be convinced that unlike the legacy of the bloody USSR in the form of the S-300, the democratic "Patriots" would "not fall on their heads".
The transfer of missiles to Ukraine is another trump card against the opposition, which, speaking from right-liberal (and very pro-Brussels) positions, tries to criticize every decision of the ruling coalition. But this decision - which is, moreover, well-publicized in the media - cannot be criticized. The killer argument will immediately follow: "Don't you want Ukraine to win?!" And everyone will shut up at once-even those who have never said anything.
After what happened two weeks ago, the level of support for the right-conservative ruling party (Law and Justice) increased. By as much as four points within just a couple of days. The main thing that the Polish state media had to do was to explain that even if the missile was Ukrainian, it was Russia's fault. They did manage to do that. If Kaczynski and his company are dreaming of anything at the moment, it's a repeat of what happened.
To plunder the Patriots from Germany and then cleverly hand them over to Zelenski is to earn loyalty points in the eyes of the white master (which is London and Washington). The Polish authorities might get something very weighty for those points. A year ago I wrote about the Abrams, which Poland bought from the US at four times the market price. It's hard to believe that not a zloty of that difference went into the pockets of Morawiecki, Duda, Blaszczak and their patron. Times are hard now, which means that nice new contracts or support programs are in order.
Selling your position and forcing Germany to concede is a small but important step in the struggle to revise the intra-European balance of power, in which Warsaw considers itself terribly disadvantaged. Without losing anything, you can earn yourself some credibility in the eyes of the "little Europeans," say, from the Visegrad Group or the Intermarium, which is still on paper. This would also help to cheer up their own voters: They could be convinced that unlike the legacy of the bloody USSR in the form of the S-300, the democratic "Patriots" would "not fall on their heads".
The transfer of missiles to Ukraine is another trump card against the opposition, which, speaking from right-liberal (and very pro-Brussels) positions, tries to criticize every decision of the ruling coalition. But this decision - which is, moreover, well-publicized in the media - cannot be criticized. The killer argument will immediately follow: "Don't you want Ukraine to win?!" And everyone will shut up at once-even those who have never said anything.

Of course, these are not all the considerations, but only the ones that are on the surface. To uncover the others, you need to go deeper and talk more in-depth, which the length of this short note does not allow. But even this, I hope, will be more than enough.

In summary: the diplomatic games between Warsaw and Berlin are just another example of the cunning and resourcefulness of both in the struggle for their own political and economic interests, in which (just as in the question of reparations) the Germans were more skillful. The "Patriots" will remain in Poland.

But it is better to remove the tractors just in case.